Bitcoin Volatility Index (0.69%) | Bitcoin Volatility Explained (2023 Updated) (2024)

By: Ofir Beigel | Last updated: 1/15/23

Bitcoin is one of the more volatile assets you can invest in today. This post displays Bitcoin’s volatility index and how to measure it.

Bitcoin Volatility Index Summary

The Bitcoin volatility index measures how much Bitcoin’s price fluctuated on a specific day (relative to its price). The higher the volatility, the riskier the investment since it’s hard to predict what the price will do.

Bitcoin Volatility (measured by % of change)

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30-Day Estimate60-Day Estimate

last 30 day estimate

1.17700%

last 60 day estimate

1.37283%

That’s the Bitcoin volatility index in a nutshell. For a more detailed explanation about Bitcoin’s volatility keep on reading, here’s what I’ll cover:

  1. Is Bitcoin Volatile?
  2. Why is Bitcoin So Volatile?
  3. How to Calculate Bitcoin’s Volatility?
  4. Frequently Asked Questions
  5. Conclusion

1. Is Bitcoin Volatile?

Yes, Bitcoin is considered relatively volatile, but it really depends on what you compare it to. Bitcoin’s volatility is a measurement of how much Bitcoin’s price fluctuates, relative to the average price in a given time period.

Volatility measures past performance of price and is used to predict how likely it is that the price will change dramatically. The higher the volatility – the riskier the asset.

2. Why is Bitcoin so Volatile?

Usually, the smaller market cap an asset has, the more volatile it will be. Imagine throwing a rock into a small pond. Now take the same rock and throw it into the ocean. The rock will have much more effect on the pond than on the ocean.

In the same manner, Bitcoin (the small pond for now) is more volatile (i.e. affected) by everyday buy / sell orders (the rock).

Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $350 billion. In comparison, gold’s market cap is around $3 trillion (over 8x larger).

Market cap is calculated by multiplying the number of Bitcoins in circulation by the price of each Bitcoin.

Since the amount of Bitcoins in circulation is limited (21 million) and we’ve already reached 88% of the total amount, the major influence on Bitcoin’s market cap will be through price changes.

Once the price increases and brings the market cap to a higher level, price movements will become smaller.

In short, a higher price = higher market cap = lower volatility.

3. How to Calculate Bitcoin’s Volatility?

Volatility is measured by sampling how far away Bitcoin’s price goes from the price at a fixed point in time. In our case – Bitcoin’s opening price on a specific day.

Bitcoin’s daily volatility formula is actually the standard deviation of Bitcoin’s price.

The standard deviation is calculated as follows = √(Bitcoin’s price variance).

Bitcoin’s price variance is calculated as follows:

  • Sample Bitcoin’s price at different time points throughout the day – the number of samples is N
  • Calculate: (Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)^2
  • Sum up all the results = ∑(Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)^2
  • Divide the results by N = ∑(Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)^2 /N
  • This is the Bitcoin’s variance

Bitcoin’s daily volatility = Bitcoin’s standard deviation = √(∑(Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)^2 /N).

For a general timeframe volatility calculation, use the following formula:

√timeframe * √Bitcoin’s price variance

For example, the annualized volatility for Bitcoin would be √365 * Bitcoin’s daily volatility.

The monthly volatility would be √31 * Bitcoin’s daily volatility and so on.

What Units is Bitcoin’s Volatility Measured In?

In the example above we’ve used Bitcoin’s price to measure the standard deviation. Therefore, the volatility is measured in US dollars. If you want the volatility to be displayed in percent, you’ll need to recalculate the variance in percent using the following formula:

  • Sample Bitcoin’s price at different time points throughout the day – the number of samples is N
  • Calculate the deviation in percent: ((Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)/Bitcoin’s opening price*100)^2
  • Sum up all the results = ∑((Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)/Bitcoin’s opening price*100)^2
  • Divide the results by N = ∑((Bitcoin’s opening price – Price at N)/Bitcoin’s opening price*100)^2 / N
  • This is the variance as a percentage

The square root of the variance in percent will be the standard deviation, or volatility, as a percentage.

4. Frequently Asked Questions

What Affects the Price of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price is affected by supply and demand. The more demand there is for Bitcoin, the higher people will be willing to pay for it – hence the price will go up.

If there’s no demand for Bitcoin, people will be willing to get rid of it for a lower price – hence the price goes down.

The term “Bitcoin Price” refers to the last price of a trade conducted on a specific exchange. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price on Bitstamp will be different than Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase, since both exchanges have different trades going on.

Usually the price differences between exchanges are minimal, however, in some cases a gap can develop, allowing for Bitcoin arbitrage opportunities.

5. Conclusion

Bitcoin is still considered an extremely volatile asset, which means that 5%-10% price changes on a single day aren’t uncommon.

Bitcoin’s high volatility makes it difficult for businesses to accept it as payment, and also makes it very nerve wracking for a lot of investors.

On the bright side, high volatility means that experienced traders can make a nice profit from trading Bitcoin. As Bitcoin matures and becomes more mainstream, its price will rise and its volatility will decrease accordingly.

Do you think Bitcoin will ever stop being volatile? Let me know in the comment section below.

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FAQs

What is Bitcoin volatility index today? ›

Last: 57.29 Chg: -0.33 (-0.57%)

What is the best volatility model for crypto? ›

The standard GARCH model and two asymmetric GARCH models were used to model the volatility of Bitcoin. The GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986) has been considered one of the most popular volatility models.

What does Bitcoin volatility mean? ›

Volatility is a measure of the risk and potential returns associated with an investment. Bitcoin has historically been volatile, due to immature markets and investor speculation. Bitcoin is expected to become less volatile as clarity around the currency develops and Bitcoin markets become more efficient.

Where to trade Bitcoin Volatility Index? ›

You can trade for BTC Volatility Index using ETH in your Coinbase Wallet. If you do not already have ETH in your Coinbase Wallet account, then you'll be prompted to buy ETH on your Coinbase account.

Is Bitcoin volatility decreasing? ›

Bitcoin (BTC 0.05%) has long been criticized for its high volatility, which is often cited as a major barrier to adopting the cryptocurrency as a legitimate investment. However, in recent years, its volatility has been steadily decreasing, and this trend looks poised to continue in the future.

What is the highly volatile crypto today? ›

Dogecoin (DOGE) is one of the most volatile cryptocurrencies that presents traders with opportunities to capitalize on price fluctuations.

What time is crypto most volatile? ›

The volatility of Bitcoin makes it possible to earn a large amount of money very quickly. According to experienced analysts, trading is best between midnight and 1 p.m. during the UTC zone. During this time, you are advised to open intraday transactions.

Which indicator is best for volatility? ›

8 best* volatility indicators to know
  • Bollinger Bands.
  • ATR – Average True Range Indicator.
  • VIX – Volatility Index.
  • Keltner Channel Indicator.
  • Donchian Channel Indicator.
  • Chaikin Volatility Indicator.
  • Twiggs Volatility Indicator.
  • RVI – Relative Volatility Index.

Which strategy is best in volatility? ›

Key takeaways
  • The strangle options strategy is designed to take advantage of volatility.
  • A long strangle involves buying both a call and a put for the same underlying stock and expiration date, with different exercise prices for each option.
  • This strategy may offer unlimited profit potential and limited risk of loss.

What drives Bitcoin volatility? ›

Bitcoin's price fluctuates because it is influenced by supply and demand, investor and user sentiments, government regulations, and media hype. All of these factors work together to create price volatility.

How low will Bitcoin go? ›

They predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $5,000 levels in 2023. Experts believe that the rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy will not allow Bitcoin to rebound sharply in the near future.

How do you deal with Bitcoin volatility? ›

Invest in stablecoins

Another option for avoiding crypto volatility and protecting yourself during a market dip is to convert some of your (potentially volatile) crypto holdings for stable-value assets. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to a fiat (stable) currency, such as the US dollar - or even gold.

How do I buy Bitcoin volatility? ›

If you do have to purchase Crypto Volatility Token with another crypto, you'll need to first create a crypto wallet that supports Crypto Volatility Token, then you'll buy the first currency and use it to buy Crypto Volatility Token on the platform you chose. If you get stuck, most platforms provide guides.

How do you read Bitcoin volatility index? ›

Bitcoin's daily volatility = Bitcoin's standard deviation = √(∑(Bitcoin's opening price – Price at N)^2 /N). For example, the annualized volatility for Bitcoin would be √365 * Bitcoin's daily volatility. The monthly volatility would be √31 * Bitcoin's daily volatility and so on.

Which ETF has exposure to Bitcoin? ›

The Best Bitcoin ETFs of May 2023
ETF (ticker)AUM
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF (BITI)$137 million
VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBTF)$39 million
Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF)$28 million
Simplify Bitcoin Strategy PLUS Inc ETF (MAXI)$22 million
2 more rows
May 5, 2023

What hours are Bitcoin volatile? ›

Most Active Crypto Trading Times

It has been suggested that the best time to trade cryptocurrencies is from 8am to 4pm. This is the time when the most volatility occurs, particularly in American markets, so there is the most potential to make money at this point.

Which is more stable the US dollar or Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin Is More Stable Than US Stocks, Data Shows.

Is the S&P 500 more volatile than Bitcoin? ›

We found that bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than 112 stocks of the S&P 500 in a 90 day period and 145 stocks YTD.

What is the best crypto that will explode? ›

The Most Likely Crypto to Explode Next
  • AiDoge (AI) – New project leveraging AI to create memes from text prompts. ...
  • Spongebob (SPONGE) – New meme cryptocurrency, which has exploded by over 600% in the last 24 hours. ...
  • Love Hate Inu (LHINU) – Vote-to-earn platform rewards users for voting 'love' or 'hate' on viral issues.

What is the most risky cryptocurrency? ›

DeeLance — Exciting Crypto to Revolutionize Freelance Economy. DeeLance is another high-risk, high-reward crypto because its presale has only just launched but the project is set to revolutionize the freelance world.

Which crypto has fallen the most? ›

Bitcoin lost over 60% of its value in 2022—here's how much 6 other popular cryptocurrencies lost
  • Terra: -100%
  • Solana: -93%
  • AMP: -93%
  • Cardano: -80%
  • Ether: -67%
  • Bitcoin: -63%
  • Dogecoin: -55%
Dec 23, 2022

What is the best day of the week to buy crypto? ›

What is the Best Day of the Week to Buy Cryptocurrency? The best day of the week to buy cryptocurrency is Monday when prices are the lowest. Sunday is the next best day of the week overall. After that, prices rise with Friday being the most expensive day to buy cryptocurrency.

What time of day is best to buy Bitcoin? ›

Research suggests that Bitcoin is most volatile at around 1 am UTC, likely because Western and Asian traders are actively trading simultaneously at that time. The best time to buy crypto is when the buyer is feeling confident in their strategy and financially ready to make a move, according to experts.

What is the best day of the week to sell crypto? ›

This means that Monday or Tuesday statistically is the best time to cash out your Friday long or take a short position to cash out on the subsequent Friday when the price is statistically lower.

Which index has the most volatility? ›

The S&P 500® Volatility – Highest Quintile Index is designed to measure performance of the 100 most-volatile stocks in the S&P 500. Constituents are selected based on their volatility and are then weighted by their corresponding volatility.

Do you want volatility to be high or low? ›

Higher stock price volatility often means higher risk and helps an investor to estimate the fluctuations that may happen in the future.

How do you predict volatility? ›

Using equity return data, we find that daily realized power (involving 5-minute absolute returns) is the best predictor of future volatility (measured by increments in quadratic variation) and outperforms model based on realized volatility (i.e. past increments in quadratic variation).

How do you make money on high volatility? ›

Derivative contracts can be used to build strategies to profit from volatility. Straddle and strangle options positions, volatility index options, and futures can be used to make a profit from volatility.

How do you trade when volatility is high? ›

The easiest and most obvious way to go long volatility is to simply buy calls and puts. If you believe volatility will continue higher and options prices continue to expand, buying an option in the direction of the underlying trend is one way to ride the wave.

What is the most volatile investment? ›

The highest risk investments are cryptocurrency, individual stocks, private companies, peer-to-peer lending, hedge funds and private equity funds. High-risk, volatile investments may bring high rewards, or they may bring high loss.

Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility and why? ›

Our findings provide strong evidence that GVZ exhibits strongest predictability for Bitcoin volatility over other competing predictors.

What drives Bitcoin higher? ›

Bitcoin's price is primarily affected by its supply, the market's demand for it, availability, competing cryptocurrencies, and investor sentiment. Bitcoin supply is limited—there is a finite number of bitcoin, and the final coins are projected to be mined in 2140.

What causes Bitcoin to rise? ›

Simply put, the price of Bitcoin goes up when demand for Bitcoin goes up, and the price goes down when there is less demand for it.

What is the prediction for Bitcoin in 2023? ›

According to our Bitcoin price prediction, BTC price is expected to have a 0.74% decrease and drop as low as by May 09, 2023.

What is the forecast for Bitcoin in 2023? ›

Cryptocurrency industry insiders predict bitcoin could hit a new all-time high in 2023 and possibly reach $100,000. It comes after a noted investor bet that the digital currency could go to $1 million in 90 days.

Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin 2023? ›

Indeed, a panel of 32 financial technology and cryptocurrency specialists has projected that the price of Bitcoin would grow during 2023, peaking at $42,225 before finally ending the year at $35,459, according to the results of a poll carried out by the investment platform Finder and shared with Finbold on April 19.

What is the biggest Bitcoin crash in history? ›

2017 boom and 2018 crash. The 2018 cryptocurrency crash (also known as the Bitcoin crash and the Great crypto crash) was the sell-off of most cryptocurrencies starting in January 2018. After an unprecedented boom in 2017, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 65% from 6 January to 6 February 2018.

Why is volatility bad in cryptocurrency? ›

Cryptocurrency markets are highly speculative, and no established regulatory regime exists for their trading. Therefore, cryptocurrencies trade at a more unpredictable rate than stocks and bonds.

How much Bitcoin should I own? ›

If you choose to invest, it's important to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes several different types of investments to reduce your overall risk exposure. As a rule of thumb, don't invest more than 10% of your portfolio in risky assets like Bitcoin.

How much will I get if I invest $100 in Bitcoin? ›

How far can a $100 investment into Bitcoin go?
YearBitcoin price on January 1BTC acquired with $100 investment
2018$14,5000.0068 BTC
2019$3,8000.026 BTC
2020$7,3000.013 BTC
2021$29,2000.0034 BTC
8 more rows
Jan 31, 2023

How many people own 1 Bitcoin? ›

However, some estimates can be made based on blockchain data and surveys of Bitcoin holders. According to data from Bitinfocharts, as of March 2023, there are approximately 827,000 addresses that hold 1 bitcoin or more, representing around 4.5% of all addresses on the Bitcoin network.

How do you trade volatility index for beginners? ›

The primary way to trade on VIX is to buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) tied to VIX itself. ETFs and ETNs related to the VIX include the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) and the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY).

What is the best crypto to invest in 2023? ›

5 Best Cryptocurrency to Invest for Low-Risk Investment in 2023
  • yPredict.ai: Accurate insights for smarter decisions for traders.
  • CVX: Energy for progress and prosperity.
  • Kusama: Empowering a decentralized future together.
  • Audius: A decentralized music streaming platform.
  • Astar: Building the future of DeFi.
Apr 17, 2023

Which is the best bitcoin ETF to buy? ›

Our Top Picks for the Best Bitcoin ETFs
  • ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) – Best U.S.-based Bitcoin ETF.
  • ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF (BITI) – Best for Daily Profit Opportunities.
  • Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ) – Cheapest ETF option.
  • Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF) – Best Actively Managed Bitcoin ETF.
Feb 14, 2023

What is the best stock to get exposure to bitcoin? ›

The Best Crypto Stocks of May 2023
Stock (ticker)Market Cap
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)$86 billion
CME Group (CME)$66 billion
Block Inc. (SQ)$36 billion
Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)$8 billion
2 more rows
May 2, 2023

What is the fear index on bitcoin? ›

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index provides a score of 0 to 100, categorising bitcoin sentiment from extreme fear to extreme greed. Many crypto traders use the index to help them find the right time to enter and exit the market. In this guide, we cover everything from how it works to how you can use it to help you trade.

What is bitcoin fear and price index? ›

How Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index Works?
Index LevelsBitcoin Market Sentiment
0-24Extreme fear
25-49Fear
50-74Greed
75-100Extreme greed
May 4, 2023

What is the Fidelity bitcoin index? ›

Fidelity Physical Bitcoin ETP (Primary Ticker FBTC) is an exchange traded product (ETP) which aims to track the price of Bitcoin. FBTC is 100% physically backed by Bitcoin held in custody provided by Fidelity Digital Assets and trades on European exchanges.

What is the volatility of gold and bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold, making it a riskier investment than gold.

Is BTC worth buying now? ›

Investing in bitcoin now is a brilliant idea since it's a cryptocurrency with much potential. There are many benefits, like greater security and lower transaction fees, which can help diversify your portfolio. A lot of financial experts say it's an excellent long-term investment.

How do I check my BTC dominance? ›

Bitcoin dominance can be calculated by taking Bitcoin's market cap divided by the entire cryptocurrency market cap, thereby giving a percentage value. This percentage determines the value of Bitcoin to that of the total cryptocurrency market.

Why do people fear Bitcoin? ›

It Isn't Legal Tender

Cryptocurrency is currently not classified as actual legal tender by the United States government. This may be another of the reasons people fear cryptocurrency. Another reason people have to be afraid of cryptocurrency is because not all countries presently accept it.

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